IDC cuts 2026 PC forecast as memory shortages bite
IDC has cut its 2026 forecast for global PC shipments, now expecting an 11.3% decline. That is a sharp deterioration from its previous outlook.
Tablet shipments are also expected to fall, with volumes forecast to decline 7.6%. IDC's earlier PC forecast, published late last year, had pointed to a 2.4% drop, underscoring how quickly conditions in the device market have worsened.
The downgrade reflects memory shortages, rising component prices and broader supply constraints. IDC now expects those pressures to limit production well into 2027, making any recovery difficult to predict.
The forecast was compiled before a further escalation in the Middle East conflict, adding another layer of risk for technology and hardware industries already dealing with disruption.
Despite weaker shipment volumes, the total market value is expected to edge higher as average selling prices rise. IDC forecasts the PC market will grow 1.6% in value to USD $274 billion in 2026, while the tablet market will increase 3.9% to USD $66.8 billion.
That combination of lower unit shipments and higher revenue points to a market in which vendors sell fewer devices at higher prices. For buyers, it signals a material shift from the pricing environment that shaped much of the consumer electronics market in recent years.
Ryan Reith, Group Vice President, Devices and Consumer, at IDC, described the pressures facing the sector in stark terms.
"The overall tech industry, as well as many others, continues to face uncontrollable headwinds that, when compounded, result in massive disruption," Reith said.
"The lists of industry and geopolitical events that continue to grow is making decision‐making-and even survival in some sectors-nearly impossible. What has turned all of this from a million‐dollar question into a trillion‐dollar question is the complete uncertainty around when these pressures will subside."
Price pressure
IDC expects the effects of memory shortages to extend beyond this year. Jitesh Ubrani, Research Manager for IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said the market was entering a period in which structurally higher prices would weigh on long-term demand.
"The era of bargain-priced PCs and tablets is behind us for now, as rising ASPs and component costs shift the market's balance of power," Ubrani said.
"Memory shortages will persist well into 2027. While we anticipate some easing of prices beginning in 2028, the market is unlikely to return to the pricing levels seen in 2025. Instead, we expect a new normal defined by structurally higher ASPs and a corresponding softening in long-term demand."
The revised outlook suggests both consumer and commercial buyers may face a constrained market for an extended period. Higher memory costs can quickly feed through to the final selling price of notebooks, desktops and tablets, particularly when manufacturers have limited room to offset pressure elsewhere in their supply chains.
For device makers, the outlook points to difficult trade-offs between protecting margins and maintaining sales volumes. Vendors are likely to place greater emphasis on supply chain resilience, seek more flexible component sourcing and consider lower-specification designs to keep devices more affordable.
Broader impact
A prolonged squeeze in PC and tablet production would have implications across the broader technology sector. Personal computing devices remain a major category for component suppliers, manufacturers, retailers and enterprise buyers, and sustained weakness in shipments can affect investment decisions throughout those networks.
IDC tracks the market across more than 90 countries through its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. Its latest revision adds to evidence that supply-side pressures, rather than a simple demand slowdown, are shaping the near-term outlook for personal computing devices.
PC and tablet vendors are entering 2026 with a weaker volume outlook, firmer prices and no clear signal on when component availability will normalise.