NAV Canada report says drones to reshape low-level airspace
NAV CANADA has published a market study projecting strong long-term growth for drones and advanced air mobility in Canada, with the sector expected to contribute more than CAD $69 billion to national GDP by 2045.
The findings point to a sharp rise in aircraft numbers, flight volumes and employment linked to remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS), and advanced air mobility services. The number of aircraft operating in the use cases covered is estimated to increase from about 24,000 in 2024 to 507,000 by 2045.
That expansion would place far greater demands on traffic management. By 2045, the RPAS Traffic Management system is projected to handle about 19 million operations, or more than 50,000 a day, while total drone and advanced air mobility flights are expected to exceed 21 million.
The gap between projected demand and the system capacity outlined in the study suggests additional investment will be needed to accommodate that level of activity.
The economic projections are also substantial. The RPAS and advanced air mobility sectors contributed between CAD $2.4 billion and CAD $3.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2024 and supported more than 30,000 jobs nationwide. By 2045, that contribution is forecast to rise more than twentyfold, with more than 290,000 jobs tied to activities including data processing, logistics, infrastructure inspection and remote flight operations.
The report also outlines how drone use could expand across public services and commercial markets. It projects 350,000 yearly health-care deliveries by 2045, including pathology samples, blood, organs and prescription medicine. In public safety, around 15,000 RPAS are expected to support law enforcement, border surveillance, emergency management and disaster response.
Passenger transport also features in the forecast, with 150,000 RPAS passenger transportation operations projected across tourism, commuting and health-care applications. In consumer deliveries, the study estimates 4.9 million annual flights for food, groceries, parcels and eCommerce shipments.
The market's makeup is also expected to change. Construction, infrastructure and real estate currently account for 45 per cent of operations and 39 per cent of total aircraft. By 2045, transportation and logistics are expected to become the dominant segment, driven largely by the expansion of drone delivery services and a corresponding increase in the number of aircraft operating simultaneously.
Outside recreational flying, 97 per cent of operations are expected to deliver measurable business value. The report also says automated systems can generate on-site cost savings of 50 to 70 per cent in sectors including construction, energy and mining.
Those forecasts rest on wider use of Beyond Visual Line of Sight operations, where drones fly beyond the operator's direct line of sight. While most flights today remain within visual range, most operations are expected to shift to BVLOS within the next decade, allowing aircraft to travel further but also requiring more extensive oversight and data exchange.
According to the report, the operational challenge is not only about the number of aircraft. It also involves digital systems, traffic rules and coordination between operators and public authorities as drone use becomes more routine in shared airspace.
The organisation is working with Transport Canada, the Canadian Advanced Air Mobility group and the Aerial Evolution Association of Canada on sector development as Canada moves towards a more automated airspace.
Mark Cooper, President and Chief Executive Officer, said the figures underline both the scale of the opportunity and the need for preparation across the aviation system.
"The scale of economic opportunity highlighted in this study confirms that Canada is entering a new era of aviation," he said. "To seize that potential, Canada's key players need to be ready by investing in the infrastructure, regulatory frameworks and partnerships that will enable safe integration of new airspace users."