Artificial intelligence drives shift to real-time cyber risk by 2026

Cyber security leaders expect organisations to move away from perimeter-focused defences and embrace continuous, real-time risk assessment as artificial intelligence reshapes both attack and defence by 2026.

Executives from Gigamon and Armis say rising breach rates, tougher regulation and AI-enabled threats are exposing the limits of prevention-centric strategies and periodic risk reviews.

They argue that security programmes will need deeper visibility into networks and assets, faster detection and response, and tighter integration with board oversight and cyber insurance.

Prevention limits

Shane Buckley, President and CEO of network visibility specialist Gigamon, expects reliance on prevention as the primary cyber security strategy to decline as attackers use AI, deepfakes and stealthy malware to evade traditional controls.

"Prevention is dead in cybersecurity - By 2026, the myth of prevention as a primary strategy will be fully exposed. Attackers are faster, smarter, and more patient than ever, leveraging AI, deepfakes, and malware that can remain undetected for months, bypassing traditional defenses," said Shane Buckley, President and CEO, Gigamon.

"Many vendors will continue to overemphasize prevention, presenting it as innovation while moving away from detection and response, but this approach is increasingly ineffective. Breach rates are rising 17 percent year over year, with 55 percent of organizations affected in the past 12 months alone, highlighting that relying solely on perimeter defenses is no longer sufficient." 

Buckley points to an emphasis on perimeter controls that struggle to cope with modern attack patterns, extended supply chains and encrypted traffic flows.

He says organisations will need to place more weight on visibility and active defence across their infrastructure rather than assuming every threat can be blocked at the edge.

Real-time focus

Buckley expects security teams to increase investment in monitoring and rapid remediation capabilities, particularly around third-party ecosystems and encrypted communications, as adversaries expand their use of automation.

He links this to a broader shift towards resilience, where organisations plan for compromise and focus on rapid containment and recovery.

He also highlights the role of aligning AI investments with security objectives so that defenders can counter automated and adaptive attack techniques.

"This acceleration makes real-time detection, removal, and complete visibility critical. Organisations that implement continuous risk assessment, monitor third-party ecosystems, and maintain visibility into encrypted traffic where most threats now hide will gain a decisive advantage.

"Aligning AI initiatives with security priorities further ensures defenses keep pace with adversaries. In this landscape, resilience is not about keeping every threat out; it is about seeing, stopping, and learning from threats in real time. Prevention alone is a pipe dream; the companies that survive and thrive will be those that detect and remove threats before damage is done," said Buckley.

Board oversight

Buckley also expects boardrooms, especially in the United States, to demand more up-to-date and continuous visibility of cyber risk, influenced by regulatory developments and insurers' requirements.

He notes that frameworks based on deep observability of network traffic, including encrypted data and third-party connections, are likely to become part of standard governance expectations.

"Real-Time Cyber Risk Assessment Will Become a Board-Level Mandate and Drive Cyber Insurance - As adversaries continue to outpace traditional defenses, fueled by AI and increasingly sophisticated tactics, organizations will no longer be able to rely on periodic or reactive risk assessments.

"By 2026, U.S. boards will mandate real-time risk assessment frameworks, which can only be achieved through deep observability that provides visibility into encrypted traffic, third-party ecosystems, and hidden threats. Regulatory pressure, including the Department of Defence's CMMC 2.0 (effective November 2025), which requires contractors to continuously assess and monitor cybersecurity practices, is signaling a broader expectation for real-time risk assessment across industries," said Buckley.

He expects cyber insurance pricing and coverage to track these changes, with carriers rewarding continuous monitoring and penalising gaps in visibility and control.

"At the same time, cyber insurers will tie premiums and coverage to these practices, rewarding organizations that demonstrate continuous monitoring and penalising those that lack complete visibility. Real-time risk assessment powered by deep observability will become both a governance requirement and a financial lever, ensuring organizations detect and respond to threats before they escalate," said Buckley.

AI-enabled threats

Nadir Izrael, Co-Founder and CTO of asset intelligence platform Armis, expects AI to feature more heavily in both attack tools and defensive systems over the next two years.

He says nation-state groups and organised criminals are already using AI to automate discovery of vulnerabilities and run large-scale exploitation campaigns that mimic human behaviour.

"AI has moved from being a tool in the defender's arsenal to a weapon in the attacker's. Nation-states and organised cybercriminal groups are now deploying AI to discover zero-days, launch automated exploitation chains, and mimic human behaviour at a scale and speed we've never seen before. The rise of AI-powered malware and state-sponsored chaos is no longer a prediction but our reality," said Izrael.

He says the response will require systems that anticipate and adapt to attacks across mixed environments, including operational technology and connected medical devices.

"For 2026, the key challenge is clear: we must build security systems that don't just react but anticipate. Traditional controls and reactive defences are not enough. What's required now is continuous, intelligent proactive protection that can adapt in real time, spanning IT, OT, IoT, and medical devices across physical, cloud and code environments."

Future scenarios

Izrael outlines a series of scenarios that he believes security leaders should plan for, from AI manipulation of financial markets to synthetic identities and AI-driven hybrid warfare.

He also points to risks in software and firmware supply chains, as well as data exfiltration that anticipates future advances in quantum computing.

"Scenarios to defend against in 2026 AI-Powered Financial System Manipulation: Autonomous trading bots and AI-driven deepfakes manipulate stock markets, commodities, and cryptocurrency ecosystems. By impersonating regulators or company executives, AI systems trigger false earnings reports, disseminate false corporate announcements, falsify investor briefings, or simulate market crashes.

"The result: global financial instability with seconds-scale losses that human operators cannot contain. Synthetic Identity Epidemic: AI-generated personas infiltrate every layer of society: bank accounts, health systems, social networks, and even voting rolls.

"These synthetic humans conduct transactions, vote, and create fake social movements, overwhelming identity verification systems and making trust in digital identity nearly meaningless.

"AI-Directed Hybrid Warfare: Hyper scaled state and non-state actors deploy autonomous AI agents to conduct hybrid warfare, blending cyberattacks, misinformation, and kinetic effects. It is relatively easy, does not require vast resources while at the same time inflicting maximum damage and disruption. For example, AI could remotely disable transport logistics, simultaneously trigger energy grid failures, and release coordinated disinformation campaigns to sow chaos among populations. Civilian systems and government agencies all face synchronised pressure from virtually any entity with a little technical knowledge and an internet connection.

"AI-Poisoned Supply Chains: AI based attacks can infiltrate and corrupt software and firmware supply chains with subtle, almost undetectable modifications. Autonomous attackers inject malicious logic and backdoored objects into widely-used libraries or IoT firmware, which then propagates across thousands of organisations. Weeks or months later, the hidden payload activates or backdoor is leveraged, causing massive operational disruption across global industries.

"Data Heist & Blackmail: Hackers begin stockpiling encrypted data today to decrypt once quantum computing matures. Simultaneously, AI systems use this data to construct precise blackmail campaigns targeting corporations, governments, and individuals forcing compliance, financial transfers, or political concessions years before quantum decryption is even feasible," said Izrael.

Platform push

Izrael expects buyers to move away from isolated tools and manual processes, favouring security platforms that can correlate signals and automate remediation across large estates.

He says coverage will need to extend across IT, cloud, operational systems and connected devices, with context to prioritise risk and orchestrate response.

"To meet these challenges, security solutions must become more autonomous, more contextual, and more tightly integrated into enterprise ecosystems. Point products, 'snapshot' risk assessments and manual processes will not keep pace with AI-powered adversaries. What's required is a unified platform that provides real-time visibility, automated detection, and orchestrated response across the entire attack surface," said Izrael.